Attack in Nice is first and foremost a human tragedy, but politics does not stop for mourning. What we see in France now is very different than what we saw after the two rounds of attacks in Paris last year. Then, everyone rallied around the flag, and President Francois Hollande saw a significant bump in his approval ratings. Now, with an election on the horizon, Hollande is seen as dangerously out of touch.
Marine le Pen, the far-right candidate of the French National Front, has already been polling in the mid-20s and will likely see a pop in support. She misstepped politically after last year’s violence, but will likely be very vocal now, to much greater effect. She has called for detentions of anyone suspected of connections to terrorist activities. It is not a good time to be Muslim in France. Hollande will be weakened further and the country dangerously divided.
All this will have consequences beyond the polls. The intense focus on security will make it that much harder for France’s leadership to address fiscal austerity and meet their budgetary goals. Long-term, their credit ratings may suffer. In the nearer term, this type of terrorism is having an enormous impact France’s key tourism sector, and it dampens on consumer sentiment, as going out to movies and restaurants become seen as personal risks. And with the violence coming on Bastille Day, this may have a greater impact on France’s cultural sensibilities and on the larger identity of their country.
More broadly in Europe, the violence feeds into the greater sense of unease that prompted Britain’s vote in favor of Brexit. The Leave campaign won in part by playing on fears of Islamism and migratory pressures, all of which were effectively conflated by Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Johnson is now Britain’s foreign secretary, while Farage is headed to the US Republican National Convention. Europe’s frazzled nerves aren’t likely to get a break any time soon.
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